Worked-example setupScope and assumptions
- The fictional analyst observes two preliminary negative quarterly real-GDP changes but has no completed multi-indicator chronology.
- Period
- One fictional current-release date
- Units
- qualitative evidence controls
- Rounding
- Not applicable
Two preliminary quarterly real-GDP declines support a narrow descriptive statement and trigger investigation. They do not mechanically reproduce the NBER committee's U.S. chronology.
The reviewer asks about breadth, depth, duration, real income, payroll and household employment, industrial production, sales, monthly timing, revisions, and the authority whose definition is being invoked. A current forecast and a later peak-to-trough date are different products.
Even a well-supported recession date does not identify cause. A claim about policy, credit, energy, disease, inventories, or expectations needs a causal design and competing explanations. A portfolio, budget, or policy response also needs objectives, alternatives, uncertainty, constraints, and authority.
Verified calculation · economics foundations analysis
The curriculum loader recomputed this example before it entered the site build. Expand any structured input to inspect the stated facts.
- claim audits
- 1 field
Inspect data
{
"recession_dating_claim": {
"causal_design_supplied": 0,
"decision_authority_identified": 0,
"feasible_alternatives_compared": 0,
"model_assumptions_stated": 0,
"observation_supplied": 1,
"value_criterion_stated": 0
}
}Recomputed result
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| recession dating claim causal claim supported | 0 |
| recession dating claim descriptive claim supported | 1 |
| recession dating claim recommendation supported | 0 |