Worked example · EX:statistics-estimation-and-uncertainty/build-juniper-mean-intervals

Build and challenge Juniper's one-sample mean intervals

Compute separate supplied t intervals at full precision, reconcile both endpoints, and distinguish mechanical correctness from inferential warrant.

Updated Aug 7, 2026 Review due Nov 7, 2026
On this page
  1. Year 1
  2. Year 2
  3. Challenge the warrant
Worked-example setupScope and assumptions
  • Each year is treated as a separate simple random sample from its stated frame.
  • The supplied Student-t critical value 2.131449545559323 matches 95% two-sided coverage and fifteen degrees of freedom.
  • The arithmetic does not establish independence, approximate normality, frame validity, or measurement quality; Year 2's tail remains a material condition challenge.
Period
Separate fictional 2025 and 2026 invoice populations
Units
Calendar days
Rounding
Full precision through endpoints; display to two decimals only after reconciliation

Year 1

[ SE_1=5.852349955359813/\sqrt{16}=1.4630874888399532. ]

[ MOE_1=2.131449545559323(1.4630874888399532) =3.1184971632014493. ]

The full-precision interval is [28.75650283679855, 34.99349716320145] days; display [28.76, 34.99] only after checking the midpoint and half-width.

Year 2

[ SE_2=13.812434011908739/\sqrt{16}=3.4531085029771846, ]

[ MOE_2=2.131449545559323(3.4531085029771846) =7.360126549437754. ]

The interval is [22.014873450562245, 36.73512654943775] days. Its extra width comes from larger sample spread, not a different sample size or critical value.

Challenge the warrant

The Year 1 distribution has no quartile-fence flag, but sample size remains small and customer-level dependence is unknown. Year 2 has a severe retained tail and the same unknown dependence. Both targets exclude unsettled invoices, and both rely on source and frame controls outside the interval formula.

Report the outputs as conditional calculations. Do not use interval overlap to declare the population means equal, interval separation to declare them different, or either interval as a range for individual future invoices.

Verified calculation · descriptive estimation analysis

The curriculum loader recomputed this example before it entered the site build. Expand any structured input to inspect the stated facts.

comparisons
1 field
Inspect data
{
  "year_2_vs_year_1": {
    "direction": "right-minus-left",
    "left": "year_1",
    "right": "year_2"
  }
}
series
2 fields
Inspect data
{
  "year_1": {
    "dispersion_convention": "sample-n-minus-one",
    "inference_basis": "simple-random-sample",
    "mean_confidence_interval": {
      "confidence_level": 0.95,
      "critical_value": 2.131449545559323,
      "degrees_of_freedom": 15,
      "interval_scope": "two-sided-one-sample-mean",
      "reference_distribution": "student-t-supplied"
    },
    "missing_value_policy": "reject",
    "observations": [
      22,
      25,
      26,
      27,
      28,
      29,
      30,
      31,
      32,
      33,
      34,
      35,
      36,
      38,
      40,
      44
    ],
    "outlier_policy": "retain-and-flag",
    "population_role": "sample",
    "quartile_method": "median-of-halves-exclusive"
  },
  "year_2": {
    "dispersion_convention": "sample-n-minus-one",
    "inference_basis": "simple-random-sample",
    "mean_confidence_interval": {
      "confidence_level": 0.95,
      "critical_value": 2.131449545559323,
      "degrees_of_freedom": 15,
      "interval_scope": "two-sided-one-sample-mean",
      "reference_distribution": "student-t-supplied"
    },
    "missing_value_policy": "reject",
    "observations": [
      18,
      20,
      21,
      22,
      23,
      24,
      25,
      26,
      27,
      28,
      29,
      30,
      31,
      33,
      35,
      78
    ],
    "outlier_policy": "retain-and-flag",
    "population_role": "sample",
    "quartile_method": "median-of-halves-exclusive"
  }
}

Recomputed result

Values recomputed by the curriculum loader
MeasureValue
1 confidence interval lower28.7565
1 confidence interval upper34.9935
1 margin of error3.1185
1 standard error of mean1.4631
2 confidence interval lower22.0149
2 confidence interval upper36.7351
2 margin of error7.3601
2 standard error of mean3.4531