Misconception · MIS:midpoint-is-automatically-best-estimate

Mistaken idea “The midpoint is automatically the best estimate”

Mistaken reasoning: This mistake manufactures an expected value from endpoints without evidence that outcomes are distributed around the midpoint.

Updated Aug 21, 2026 Review due Nov 8, 2026

Why this is mistaken

Endpoints do not supply a distribution. Use a better estimate only when the evidence identifies one; otherwise follow the applicable range policy.

Where to watch

When this mistake may appear

  • Only a supported low and high estimate are supplied.
Check your work

Your work may contain this mistake if:

  • This mistake averages the range by reflex.