Misconception · MIS:narrow-interval-proves-unbiased-data

Mistaken idea “A narrow interval proves the data are unbiased”

Mistaken reasoning: This mistake treats sampling precision as evidence that the frame, measurement, cutoff, and model are correct.

Updated Aug 21, 2026 Review due Nov 7, 2026

Why this is mistaken

Interval width describes a stated sampling procedure. A large biased sample can produce a narrow interval around the wrong target. Report frame, cutoff, measurement, and processing controls separately from sampling precision.

Where to watch

When this mistake may appear

  • The sample is large or observed spread is small.
  • The interval appears decision-ready.
Check your work

Your work may contain this mistake if:

  • Calls a narrow interval accurate without source controls.
  • Assumes margin of error includes undercoverage or miscoding.