Context before interpretation
Historical frame
- Kind
- institution
- Period
- Committee chronology maintained in the modern era; procedure current as verified 2026-08-07
- Jurisdiction
- United States chronology; private research institution
The committee makes visible the difference between a broad retrospective chronology, an agency data release, a two-quarter heuristic, and a real-time forecast.
Reader prompts
Questions to carry forward
- Why use several indicators?
- Why can a turning-point date be announced after the fact?
Claim disciplineEvidence boundaries
- NBER is not a federal statistical agency, and its procedure is neither a mechanical two-quarter rule nor a causal attribution method.
The committee evaluates breadth, depth, and duration across multiple monthly and quarterly indicators. Data arrive at different frequencies and can revise, so the chronology is intentionally retrospective.
Its role is classificatory. A peak or trough date does not establish why the economy turned, which policy worked, or what action an investor should take.