Recession

Recession labels a broad contraction, not any isolated decline. A production series, industry, region, asset price, or firm can contract while the aggregate economy expands. Conversely, aggregate contraction can affect groups unevenly.

Two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP are a visible heuristic in some contexts, not the NBER committee's mechanical definition. Real income, employment, industrial production, and sales can add breadth and monthly timing.

Because data revise and turning points emerge slowly, distinguish contemporary claims from later chronology. Dating an episode does not identify its cause or prove that one policy, institution, or person produced every outcome.

Evaluate a claim

For example, a preliminary GDP release can show two declining quarters while later revisions change one sign. Treat the first report as evidence available on its release date, not as a permanent fact. The NBER procedure FAQ describes the U.S. committee's use of depth, diffusion, and duration across several indicators. A review memo should name the convention being applied, the data vintage, and the indicators that support or challenge it. Keep that classification separate from forecasts, causes, and policy recommendations.